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Rates On The Rise

Yesterday’s initial jobless claims data release came in below expectations, signaling a stronger labor market which is another “good news is bad news” signpost.

We can see some of these developments play out via the Eurodollar Futures curve where the market’s expected federal funds rate is steepening (more rate hikes), now expected to be over 4% in the second half of 2023. That’s in line with the Federal Reserve’s own projections that they’ve told the market:

By Antoni