How ‘Liveliness’ Can Track Bitcoin Price Bull And Bear Cycles Today


The below is from a recent edition of the Deep Dive, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

Today, we’re revisiting a useful on-chain metric, Liveliness, that tracks the accumulation and distribution behavior of HODLers. As a refresher, Liveliness is calculated as a ratio: the sum of all Coin Days Destroyed and the sum of all coin days ever created.

  • Liveliness increases as long-term holders distribute more coins, creating more coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.
  • Liveliness decreases as long-term holders accumulate more coins, creating less coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.
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Throughout bitcoin’s history, we see clear patterns of long-term holder distribution and accumulation that drive bull and bear market cycles that can be easily tracked with Liveliness. 

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